Search demand is shifting, not shrinking. Our analysis found that 29% of high-volume search demand is in decline, while nearly the same amount is growing elsewhere. Overall demand remains essentially flat because search behavior is being redistributed rather than reduced.
Focus your SEO strategy on where demand is growing. Review which keywords are losing volume, identify the queries gaining momentum, and build the brand authority that earns visibility in both search engines and AI-generated answers.
This study examines where search demand is moving, which industries are seeing the biggest changes, and what those patterns mean for SEO.
How we studied AI’s impact on search
In 2024, Gartner predicted that traditional search engine volume would fall 25% by 2026 as consumers shifted to AI chatbots and virtual agents. Fractl and Search Engine Land set out to test that prediction. (Disclosure: I’m the co-founder of Fractl.)
We analyzed Semrush data for 1,010,848 high-volume keywords, each with 10,000 or more monthly searches, across 379 brands in eight verticals. We also surveyed 1,004 U.S. consumers to understand how AI is changing search behavior.
The analysis measured which keywords gained and lost search volume over the past year, how those changes varied by industry, and how consumer search habits are evolving alongside AI adoption.
The 29% search decline is real, but it varies a lot by vertical
Across more than a million high-volume keywords, 29% of search volume is in measurable decline. That’s 4 percentage points above Gartner’s forecast. In a dataset representing 35.4 billion monthly searches, a 4-point difference translates to a substantial volume of searches.
By industry, FinTech saw the largest decline at -37.7% and Lifestyle the smallest at -15.2%. Only three of the eight verticals (Insurance, SaaS, and Lifestyle) came in below Gartner’s 25% threshold. FinTech, HealthTech, and Wellness all landed well above it.
The pattern tracks with how information-heavy a category is. Where a chatbot can provide a complete answer, such as a drug interaction summary, an explanation of deductibles, or a quick fund overview, search volume declines. Categories that require people to compare prices, complete a purchase, or navigate to a specific site retain more search demand.
Verticals where people need to transact (SaaS, Lifestyle, Insurance, and Travel) are growing or remain close to flat. Verticals where people primarily seek information (HealthTech, FinTech, and Wellness) are seeing the largest search declines.
Benchmark these findings against your own vertical before reacting to AI-driven search declines. HealthTech and FinTech teams should plan for exposure well above the overall 29% decline. SaaS and Lifestyle teams have more reason to question broad claims that search demand is collapsing.
Search demand is redistributing
The top-line decline number gets the headlines. The offset matters because it shows that demand didn’t vanish. It moved to a different set of words, and those are the ones worth ranking for.